Malgre Trump, envestisman # Qatar mete aksan sou rezistans Almay la

When the head of a prominent German industry body opined last month that there was a “thunderstorm coming from the west”, he encapsulated the trepidation spreading across Europe over Donald Trump and the seemingly reckless bullishness of his international trade policy. This stance seemed particularly threatening for Germany and its automotive industry, which sells around 1.3 million cars to the U.S. every year.

It’s easy to see why Trump, who has built his political strategy on aggressive atavism, would fancy a kick at Germany. The American automotive industry has been declining for several months, and with EU’s tariffs on U.S. cars significantly higher than America’s reciprocal duty, scapegoating foreign rivals plays well with Trump’s base.

So far, however, the threats have had relatively little impact. A new report suggests that morale is up in the German business community after a trans-Atlantic truce orchestrated by European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker on July 25th. Those sentiments may have been buoyed still further by recent economic developments, including a Qatari announcement of €10 billion in new investment focused on Germany’s small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) – otherwise known as the Mittelstand.

So how much damage did all this tension do to Europe’s largest economy? In fact, the fallout has been relatively minor. Factory orders slowed unexpectedly in the immediate aftermath of the Trump tweet officially threatening tariffs, but GDP growth has remained steady at around 0.5%. The business confidence index from Germany’s highly respected Ifo research institution slipped in July, but has since recorded its strongest monthly improvement since 2014. A string of thinktanks, including Ifo itself, have raised their growth forecasts, while the Purchasing Managers’ Index, which gauges the health of the manufacturing industry, reached a six-month high last week.

Nan pawòl Juncker tèt li, menm si, règleman Inyon Ewopeyen an ak Trump se sèlman yon "sispann tire" - epi li se devine nenpòt moun si wi ou non relasyon ekonomik ant Ewòp ak Etazini yo pral reprann estabilite yo nenpòt ki lè byento.

Will the German economy be able to withstand a more serious breakdown? It certainly seems better prepared to do so, thanks to recent rebalancing. Political stability and record-high employment drove consumer confidence levels to all-time highs last year. This trend has been reflected in household spending, which has risen by €20 billion in just three years. That spending has in turn fuelled record growth in the service sector, which now accounts for over two-thirds of German GDP.

reklam

Kwasans sèvis la siyifikativman redwi depandans Almay la sou fabrikasyon tradisyonèl yo. Konsantrasyon mache domestik la tou bay yon konsomatè ki te dirije kont chòk nan lavni, ranfòse pa yon nouvo peye kontra ki afekte de milyon travayè sektè piblik. Kòm chanjman sa yo kontinye, plus Almay a envestisè etranje rete diminye.

Jis semèn pase a, pou egzanp, Chanselye Alman Angela Merkel akeyi Qatar an emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani pou Bèlen pou Katar-Almay biznis ak envèstisman Forum. Evènman an ta ka nòmalman te vole anba rada a - eksepte ke emir a Qatari itilize okazyon an anonse € 10 milya dola nan envestisman nouvo nan sektè enèji Alman an ak enfliyan Almay la Mittelstand.

Etandone ke anpil nan envèstisman ki egziste deja Katar la nan Almay konpoze de aksyon nan konpayi gwo tankou Deutsche Bank, Volkswagen, ak Siemens, alokasyon sa a kapital nouvo vle di siyifikatif diversification pou prezans ekonomik Qatar nan peyi a. Katar pouvwa tou kapab ede Merkel sou la devan enèji. Tou de li ak Almay yo anba dife tou de nan Ewòp ak nan Washington pou yo depase depase depandans sou pwovizyon gaz Ris. Diskisyon nan fowòm lan enkli Qatari envestisman nan yon tèminal likid natirèl (LNG) ki ta ka ede Almay divèsifye ekipman enèji li yo.

Se konsa, depandans Almay la sou sektè otomobil la yon bagay nan tan lontan an? Sa se yon reklamasyon twò bonè, yo di omwen nan. Endistri machin Alman an toujou kont pou prèske 15 nan GDP nan peyi a epi li anplwaye sou moun 790,000, prèske 1 nan popilasyon an tout antye. Trump Trump yo te ka seryezman kwape pwodiksyon nan yon moman lè enflasyon se deja kouri enkyete segondè, epi endistri a deja anroule nan eskandal la emisyon Volkswagen. Yo ta tou vrèman pè laperèz moun anpil moun, mete yon pi gwo dan nan konfyans konsomatè.

Repetisyonist ameriken an diskou kont Ewòp se pa tanpèt la sèlman sou orizon an. Lagè komès Washington ak Beijing te kapab tou gen gwo konsekans. Gwoup endistri yo genyen te avèti ke konpayi Alman fè biznis nan tou de Lachin ak US la yo deja soufri restriksyon komès. Pi pre lakay, la kriz ekonomik nan peyi Turkey eple gwo pwoblèm pou bank Alman yo, ki se panse yo dwe karann ​​Ankara jiska € 20 milya dola.

Tout bagay sa yo konsidere, sepandan, ekonomi Alman an te degrade sa yo chòk ak dezòd sou kòm byen ke Merkel ak konseye l 'te ka te espere. Gwo Atlantik Komès Gè nan 2018 pa sanble yo te imigre soti nan Twitter nan mond reyèl la - pou kounye a, omwen nan anpil.

Pataje atik sa a: